ID2025-0018 - Indonesia offers significant opportunities for U.S. food ingredient suppliers to supply raw materials for its 100-billion-dollar food processing industry. The United States is the third largest agricultural supplier to Indonesia, with a 10 percent market share. Soybeans and dairy products made up about 52 percent of all U.S. agricultural products shipped to Indonesia in 2024. Halal certification will become mandatory for many foods, ingredients, and additives and for all processed food products starting on October 17, 2026. Ingredients and food products with good sales potential include dairy products, fresh fruit, pork, tree nuts, powdered cheese, dried egg yolk, baking inputs, sugars and sweeteners, textured soy protein, cornstarch, natural honey, odoriferous substances, wine, almonds, juices/concentrates, cherries, peaches, raspberries, blackberries, blueberries, prepared luncheon meats, frozen meals, and frozen bakery items.

ID2025-0017 - Following an estimated decrease of Indonesian cotton consumption in 2024/25 of 1.795 million bales, cotton consumption in 2025/26 is forecast to remain on par at 1.8 million bales. The decline is due to low global and domestic demand for Indonesian textiles and textile products, combined with tight competition with cheaper priced products in the local market, a weakening rupiah, and increased labor costs. The lack of a clear and consistent regulatory framework to support the textile industry in weathering the sustained downturn in textile demand will lead to further decline in cotton imports, which are forecast to decrease two percent to 1.8 million bales for 2025/26. The United States is the third largest supplier of cotton to Indonesia and the second largest importer of cotton fabrics from Indonesia.

ID2025-0016 - Sustained rainfall due to a subsiding El Nino and a weak La Nina that is predicted to last until April 2025 will likely lead to increased rice and corn production in 2024/25. Food self-sufficiency policies prioritized by Indonesia’s new administration, combined with a weakening Indonesian rupiah, and higher production are expected to severely curtail imports of corn and rice in 2024/25. Although the new President’s flagship Free Nutritious Meals program is slated to be well funded, it is expected to have limited effect on food and feed demand during its first year of implementation as suppliers await more certainty and clarity on procurement regulations before making operational adjustments.

ID2025-0014 - In Indonesia, the pet food market (especially for cats) has seen remarkable growth, increasing 24.5 percent to reach $237 million in 2023. To gain insight into this promising product category amid reduced market share for U.S. pet food, FAS Jakarta partnered with Food Export Midwest/Northeast and a prominent consultant. The attached report includes an in-depth survey and market intelligence related to Indonesian pet food production, supply, distribution, and policy. In addition, while not directly analyzed in this report, FAS Jakarta also sees opportunities for exports of U.S. pet food ingredients, including corn, chicken meal, corn gluten meal, soybean meal, and fish meal to fuel the Indonesian pet food manufacturing industry.

Id2025-0007 - Indonesia’s palm oil export estimates for 2024/25 are lowered due to the rollout of the new B40 Biodiesel mandate which is expected to raise domestic industrial palm demand by 2 percent. The expansion of the government’s Free Nutritious Meals Program is projected to increase demand for soy-based foods as well as soy-based feed ingredients to fuel increased domestic production of animal protein for the program in 2024/25. Imports of soybean and soybean meal accelerated in the first two months of 2024/25 as prices softened.

ID2025-0011 - Multiple aspects of Indonesian Quarantine Authority (IQA) regulation number 14/2024 could impact U.S. agricultural exports to Indonesia. IQA verbally clarified that the strict enforcement phase for "Prior Notice" notifications began on February 6, 2025, meaning that U.S. exporters must submit Prior Notice notifications before agricultural product shipments depart U.S. ports. In addition, beginning June 6, 2025, IQA verbally clarified this regulation requires that phytosanitary certificates be issued no more than 21 days after the phytosanitary inspection and that the shipment departs no more than 21 days after the phytosanitary certificate is issued. This report provides Post’s understanding based on verbal and informal confirmation from IQA, which we are seeking in writing. The information and guidance provided is intended to help U.S. industry comply and is subject to change.

ID2025-0009 - In January 2025, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) enacted a new regulation to curb exports of palm waste products, citing that they have already exceeded the “reasonable capacity,” in the hopes of shoring up feed stock supplies for domestic cooking oil and biofuels production. This measure is also an attempt to halt “mixture practices” of blending crude palm oil (CPO) with palm waste exports to circumvent the once higher CPO export levy and take advantage of foreign demand for waste-based feedstocks.

 ID2025-0006 - Indonesia’s new biofuel roadmap shows the government’s 10-year plan for higher biodiesel blending rates, bioethanol’s inclusion in non-subsidized gasoline, and drop-in biofuels. The roadmap draft also recognizes organic waste as a biofuel feedstock. Although the roadmap shows lofty blending goals for bioethanol, it lacks the additional regulations that provide subsidies to cover the price spread between bioethanol and gasoline like the ones that prop up the biodiesel blend mandate. Without these subsidies, fuel retailers and biofuel producers will remain disincentivized to meet the new bioethanol blend mandates. The roadmap does not address tariff rate reductions for imported bioethanol.

ID2025-0005 - On November 18, 2024, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) issued Regulation No. 19/2024 on the Supervision of Genetically Engineered Food which updates the labeling requirements for genetically engineered (GE) products, and regulates microbial biotechnology, genome editing, and the food safety assessment of products with stacked genes. Specifically, the GOI plans to enforce an existing requirement for processed food products containing at least five percent GE material to be labeled accordingly. This may have little impact on U.S. GE product exports to Indonesia, currently valued at over $2.1 billion, since fresh GE products (e.g., soybeans) and those which have been refined and no longer contain GE DNA/proteins are exempt. To date, no processed food products containing five percent GE materials have been registered with the GOI, and so FAS Jakarta is not aware of any products in commerce in Indonesia that are required to be labeled in accordance with this new regulation.

ID2025-0003 - This report serves as an update to FAS Jakarta’s previous report outlining Indonesia’s plans to impose a 12-percent value-added tax (VAT) for luxury agricultural products (please see GAIN Report ID2024-0053). This would have been a significant change, since agricultural products had not previously been subject to any VAT. Through an official press conference on December 31, 2024, President Prabowo Subianto announced a reversal which effectively means there will be no changes to VAT applications for agricultural goods, although the VAT for certain processed food products previously taxed at 11 percent will remain in place at that rate. Fresh agricultural products that were not previously subject to any VAT will remain exempt.

ID2024-0053 - On December 16, 2024, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) announced the increase in value-added tax (VAT) from the current 11 percent to 12 percent on selected goods and services, effective January 1, 2025. In addition, a separate 12 percent luxury goods sales tax will newly be applied for luxury products intended for high-end Indonesian consumers (luxury VAT). Impacted products include premium beef, pork, fruit, seafood, and specialty rice which historically were not subject to any VAT. Once in force and fully implemented as early as January 2025, the luxury VAT policy will have a significant impact on above-mentioned U.S. agricultural exports to Indonesia, currently valued at approximately $154 million per year. These products already face strong competition from countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the People’s Republic of China which offer competitive prices and have duty-free access or lower tariffs under free trade agreements.

ID2024-0051 - On October 20, 2024, Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as the eighth president of Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy. During his inauguration, President Prabowo announced he would consolidate and marshal executive and legislative power to build early momentum on his priorities, in particular food self-sufficiency, energy sovereignty, a Free Nutritious Meal Program, and “commodities down-streaming.” To fast-track his flagship Food Estate and school feeding programs, President Prabowo created a new Coordinating Ministry of Food Affairs. This report outlines key appointments within the Prabowo Administration and their priorities for background as imported products fall under increased scrutiny in Indonesia.

ID2024-0050 - The Indonesian milling industry continuously faced significant challenges during 2023/24 which is estimated to continue posing some impact to 2024/25. Slowing demand from export destination countries and fierce competition from cheaper imported products in the domestic market have forced some textile and products manufacturers to take efficiency measures. Indonesian cotton imports and consumption in 2024/25 are forecast to decrease to 1.8 million bales and 1.75 million bales respectively. The declines are due to less demand from the export market and increased competition in the domestic market. Due to lower consumption, cotton ending stocks in 2024/25 are forecast to increase 10.6 percent from 2023/24.

ID2024-0049 - In 2023, the Indonesian foodservice industry was valued at $26.3 billion, a 13 percent increase from the previous year, making it the largest foodservice market in Southeast Asia. Most of the leading foodservice players are American fast-food chains such as McDonald’s, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Starbucks. U.S. food export prospects in this market include cheese, frozen potatoes, beef, fruit, pork, wine, and tree nut products, mostly used by international hotel chains, high-end restaurants, and international fast-food chains.

ID2024-0045 - Indonesia’s 2024/25 wheat imports are forecast to decline 8 percent from 2023/24, when higher demand from feed mills, consumption of wheat flour-based food from major events in early 2024, and demand for cheaper alternatives to rice drove wheat imports up to new record highs. With larger production, rice imports in 2024/25 are expected to fall sharply from 2023/24, when the national logistics agency tendered to offset the smaller crop. Increased corn production in 2024/25 will reduce the volume of imports, although feed and wet milling demand remains strong.