ID2025-0003 - This report serves as an update to FAS Jakarta’s previous report outlining Indonesia’s plans to impose a 12-percent value-added tax (VAT) for luxury agricultural products (please see GAIN Report ID2024-0053). This would have been a significant change, since agricultural products had not previously been subject to any VAT. Through an official press conference on December 31, 2024, President Prabowo Subianto announced a reversal which effectively means there will be no changes to VAT applications for agricultural goods, although the VAT for certain processed food products previously taxed at 11 percent will remain in place at that rate. Fresh agricultural products that were not previously subject to any VAT will remain exempt.

ID2024-0053 - On December 16, 2024, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) announced the increase in value-added tax (VAT) from the current 11 percent to 12 percent on selected goods and services, effective January 1, 2025. In addition, a separate 12 percent luxury goods sales tax will newly be applied for luxury products intended for high-end Indonesian consumers (luxury VAT). Impacted products include premium beef, pork, fruit, seafood, and specialty rice which historically were not subject to any VAT. Once in force and fully implemented as early as January 2025, the luxury VAT policy will have a significant impact on above-mentioned U.S. agricultural exports to Indonesia, currently valued at approximately $154 million per year. These products already face strong competition from countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the People’s Republic of China which offer competitive prices and have duty-free access or lower tariffs under free trade agreements.

ID2024-0051 - On October 20, 2024, Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as the eighth president of Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy. During his inauguration, President Prabowo announced he would consolidate and marshal executive and legislative power to build early momentum on his priorities, in particular food self-sufficiency, energy sovereignty, a Free Nutritious Meal Program, and “commodities down-streaming.” To fast-track his flagship Food Estate and school feeding programs, President Prabowo created a new Coordinating Ministry of Food Affairs. This report outlines key appointments within the Prabowo Administration and their priorities for background as imported products fall under increased scrutiny in Indonesia.

ID2024-0050 - The Indonesian milling industry continuously faced significant challenges during 2023/24 which is estimated to continue posing some impact to 2024/25. Slowing demand from export destination countries and fierce competition from cheaper imported products in the domestic market have forced some textile and products manufacturers to take efficiency measures. Indonesian cotton imports and consumption in 2024/25 are forecast to decrease to 1.8 million bales and 1.75 million bales respectively. The declines are due to less demand from the export market and increased competition in the domestic market. Due to lower consumption, cotton ending stocks in 2024/25 are forecast to increase 10.6 percent from 2023/24.

ID2024-0049 - In 2023, the Indonesian foodservice industry was valued at $26.3 billion, a 13 percent increase from the previous year, making it the largest foodservice market in Southeast Asia. Most of the leading foodservice players are American fast-food chains such as McDonald’s, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Starbucks. U.S. food export prospects in this market include cheese, frozen potatoes, beef, fruit, pork, wine, and tree nut products, mostly used by international hotel chains, high-end restaurants, and international fast-food chains.

ID2024-0045 - Indonesia’s 2024/25 wheat imports are forecast to decline 8 percent from 2023/24, when higher demand from feed mills, consumption of wheat flour-based food from major events in early 2024, and demand for cheaper alternatives to rice drove wheat imports up to new record highs. With larger production, rice imports in 2024/25 are expected to fall sharply from 2023/24, when the national logistics agency tendered to offset the smaller crop. Increased corn production in 2024/25 will reduce the volume of imports, although feed and wet milling demand remains strong.

ID2024-0048 - Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel blending mandate program, which is expected to roll out in 2025, is projected to increase palm oil use by 3 percent to 22 million metric tons in 2024/25. Soybean consumption recovered in 2023/24 as soybean retail prices continue to decrease. Weak performance in the feed mill industry reduced 2023/24 soybean meal use lower than previously expected. Due to lower prices, Indonesia’s imports of U.S. soybean meal rose an estimated 43 percent to 167,000 MT in 2023/24.

ID2024-0043 - Indonesia’s National Agency of Drug and Food Control (BPOM) has drafted a new regulation that would mandate the use of a “Nutri-Level” front-of-pack labeling system for sugar, salt, and fat (SSF) content and set maximum SSF levels. Like the system used in Singapore, the proposed grading system would rank products as “A, B, C, and D’’ levels. C and D-level products would be required to display their “Nutri-Level” grade as well as their total SSF content per serving or per package. The first phase would apply to ready-to-drink, non-alcoholic beverages, potentially as early as December 2024. Once in force and fully implemented, this regulation would have a significant effect on U.S. packaged food and non-alcoholic beverage exports to Indonesia - currently valued at approximately $54 million per year. U.S. stakeholders are requested to share comments and concerns with FAS as soon as possible. Please note that the final regulation may be published prior to the January 2, 2025, comment deadline.

ID2024-0043 - Overall, Indonesia’s total 2024/25 coffee production rose by approximately 2.4 million bags from the previous year. However, post revised down this 2024/25 production estimate 8 percent from the previous report’s estimate to 10 million bags as robusta crop recovery from severe weather impacts in 2023/24 underperformed expectations. Green bean exports for 2024/25 are also revised down from the previous report 13 percent to 5.2 million on lower-than-expected exportable supplies. However, 2024/25 exports are still 18 percent higher than 2023/24 exports due to overall increased supply and improved demand from several international markets. The United States is expected to remain the largest destination market for Indonesian coffee green bean exports.

ID2024-0031 - On October 18, 2024, the Government of Indonesia issued Government Regulation No. 42/2024, which granted an extension until, “no later than October 17, 2026” for imported food and beverage products to come into compliance with Indonesia’s mandatory halal certification requirements. The specific length of extension which will be afforded to U.S. food and beverage products is not yet known. However, today’s action allows U.S. food and beverages (except meat and meat products) to continue to be sold in Indonesia without halal certification. FAS Jakarta will seek to clarify multiple aspects of the new regulation and provide updates accordingly.

ID2024-0039 - As FAS Jakarta previously reported, the Government of Indonesia granted an extension until, “no later than October 17, 2026” for imported food and beverage products to come into compliance with Indonesia’s mandatory halal certification requirements. This allows most U.S. food and beverage products to be exported to Indonesia without halal certification during the length of the extension. The exception is meat, meat products, and dairy products, which remain subject to halal certification requirements under a separate law. Based on conversations with Indonesia’s halal product assurance authority (BPJPH), FAS Jakarta anticipates the extension will likely be granted for the full two years. In addition, the previous requirement to get halal certificates apostilled was removed, saving U.S. exporters an onerous and bureaucratic step. Please note some of the guidance within this report is based on information gathered informally and may be subject to change.

ID2024-0038 - The signature campaign promise of the newly sworn-in Prabowo administration, the Free Nutritious Meals Program, will be a large driver of increased demand over the next five years as the program aims to provide milk to over 82 million beneficiaries daily by 2029. Indonesian 2024 dairy demand is projected to rebound back to 2022 levels at 4.2 million metric tons and increase to 5.3 million metric tons in 2025 due to the additional drinking milk consumption increase to meet the Government of Indonesia's 2025 target for the Free Nutritious Meals Program. The new administration will also be actively pushing for increased milk production through the importation of a target 1 million dairy cattle from various countries over the next five years.

ID2024-0034 - Research and development of agricultural biotechnology in Indonesia continue to progress gradually. Over the past year, around 10 GE crop events have obtained food and feed approval, although only one has received environmental approval for domestic cultivation. To date, more than 50 crop events have received food and feed safety certificates. However, the development of animal biotechnology has not been prioritized. There is still no regulatory framework for GE animals and no GE animal products have been approved for commercialization. Since food security is a top priority of the new Prabowo Subianto administration, Indonesia’s national strategy supporting the increased development of GE products is expected to continue if not ramp up.

ID2024-0036 - This report serves as an update to FAS Jakarta’s October 4, 2024 report on the Indonesian Quarantine Authority’s (IQA) expanded “prior notice” requirements (please see GAIN Report ID2024-0028). Through an official letter dated October 4, 2024, IQA confirmed there is a “soft implementation phase” of the prior notice requirement until February 5, 2025. Once full implementation begins on February 6, 2025, FAS Jakarta understands that U.S. exporters must send a copy of the prior notice submissions to their importers. Please note that this and related clarifications are based on information gathered informally and may be subject to change.

ID2024 - 0018 - Indonesia’s fuel grade ethanol consumption remains small and localized in 2024, a year after the restart of the ethanol program. The formation of a taskforce for sugarcane expansion is meant to advance Indonesia’s self-sufficiency goals in sugar and bioethanol. Biodiesel production is projected to rise by 3 percent to 13 billion liters in 2024 on expected higher diesel use combined with the government-mandated 35-percent blending rate. Combined palm oil mill effluent (POME) and palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) exports remain high on continued demand from overseas markets, lower export levies relative to crude palm oil, and a lack of incentives for local refiners to use biodiesel feedstocks other than crude palm oil.