Grain and Feed Update
ID2024-0021 – Driven mainly by higher demand from feed mills, higher consumption of flour-based food during the consecutive religious festivities and general election, as well as demand for alternative staples cheaper than rice and trending flour-based foods, Indonesian wheat imports in 2023/24 are estimated to break record levels at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT). Meanwhile, 2023/24 corn consumption for feed is revised down 8.5 percent to 8.6 MMT. Assuming recovering local corn production and lower corn prices, 2024/25 wheat imports are forecast to slow to 12.0 MMT while corn for feed consumption will increase to 9.0 MMT.
Oilseeds and Products Update
ID2024-0003
Post revised down Indonesia palm oil exports estimate to 27.9 million metric ton (MMT) on lower supplies, higher domestic use and expected reduced export demand for 2023/24. Palm oil use for the biodiesel industry is revised down to 12.3 MMT for 2023/24 on lower-than-expected biodiesel distribution in 2023. Soybean meal use is estimated to increase 2 percent to 5.65 MMT in 2023/24 from the previous year on improved feed millers’ performance.
Cotton and Products Update
ID2023-0035
Indonesian cotton imports in 2023/24 are forecast to marginally increase by 5.9 percent to 1.8 million bales compared to 1.7 million bales in 2022/23 assuming spinners will use more inventory on hand before making new purchases. Global demand slowdowns and tight competition from cheap, illegally imported clothing in the domestic market led to lower cotton utilization which will increase 2023/24 ending stocks to 379,000 bales.
Oilseeds and Products Update
ID2023-0028
Indonesia palm oil production for 2023/24 is revised down slightly to 45.8 million metric tons (MMT) due to lower yields from El Nino-induced dryness. Soybean consumption for 2022/23 is revised down on slower demand from the food sector. Reduced use of soybean meal in 2022/23 is driven by weak feed mill performance, mainly on higher production costs.
Grain and Feed Update
ID2023-0029
Economic slowdowns in Indonesia’s export destination countries negatively affected its imports and consumption of wheat. Wheat imports for 2022/23 are revised down to 9.446 million metric tons (MMT) from the previous estimate of 9.526 MMT, reflecting slower demand from both domestic and export markets. Total 2022/23 wheat consumption is estimated to decline to 9.6 MMT of wheat equivalent from 10.5 MMT the previous marketing year. As for rice, due to prolonged, El Nino-induced dryness, Indonesian 2022/23 paddy production is revised down to 53.1 MMT from the previous estimate of 53.5 MMT. Anticipating price fluctuations in 2023/24, the Government of Indonesia assigned state-owned enterprise BULOG to import another 1.5 MMT of rice to be carried out in 2024.
Oilseeds and Products Update
ID2023-0017
El-Nino weather patterns, which bring less rain than normal, are expected to peak in August to September 2023. Indonesia palm oil consumption is revised up slightly on higher use from the biodiesel industry for 2022/23. Weaker feed industry performance in the first half of 2023 is expected to curb soybean meal demand to 5.65 MMT in 2022/23.
Grain and Feed Update
ID2023-0016
Economic slowdowns in Indonesia’s export destination countries curbed Indonesia’s imports and consumption of wheat. Indonesia wheat imports for 2022/23 are estimated to decrease to 9.0 million metric tons (MMT) from 11.23 MMT imported in 2021/22, reflecting slower demand. Indonesia’s total consumption of wheat in 2022/23 is estimated at 9.5 MMT of wheat equivalent, lower than the previous estimate of 9.7 MMT of wheat equivalent. Meanwhile, El Nino is expected to reduce 2022/23 rice production to 52.9 MMT compared to the previous 2022/23 estimate of 53.5 MMT. In anticipation of price fluctuations, state-owned enterprise BULOG will likely fully utilize its food security mandate to import 2.0 MMT of rice in 2022/23.
Oilseeds and Products Update
ID2023-0002
Indonesia 2022/23 palm oil consumption is expected to rise to 19.4 million metric tons (MMT) on increased use for biodiesel production, as the Government of Indonesia (GOI) rolls out higher blending rates for its 2023 mandatory biodiesel blending program. The GOI is considering extending its soybean subsidy program into 2023, which would continue to impact the soybean market.