Cotton and Products Update
ID2025-0050 – Indonesian cotton production in 2025/26 is forecast to remain insignificant. Simultaneously, the industry continues to face problems of low global and domestic demand for Indonesian textile and textile products. Issues with low demand are further exasperated by tight competition with cheaper priced products in the local market, weakened local currency, fluctuating cotton prices in international markets, and forecast increases in labor wages. As a result, Indonesian cotton imports and consumption are forecast to decline in 2025/26.
Grain and Feed Update
ID2025-0046 – Despite predictions of another year with favorable weather, 2025/26 corn and rice production are forecast to decline. Consecutive plantings of paddy increase the risk of higher pest and disease incidence, which can lead to harvest failure. Combined with land conversion to non-agricultural uses, this will reduce paddy harvested area. Conversely, competition with other secondary crops providing higher income will reduce harvested areas of corn. Nonetheless, due to higher production of paddy and corn in 2024/25, the Government of Indonesia already announced it will only allow imports of specialty rice and will continue reducing corn import quota for industry in 2025/26, which is already forcing corn wet millers to shut down in late 2025. Imports of wheat in 2025/26 are forecast to increase to meet higher demand from growing feed and poultry industry and growing consumer demand for wheat-based foods, with an increased market share for U.S. wheat.
Oilseeds and Products Update
ID2025-0045 – Post raises its forecast for soybean meal imports in 2025/26, driven by stronger poultry demand and increased requirements from the expanding Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) program. Soybean consumption is also projected to recover in 2025/26 following contracted use related to weak household consumption in early 2025. The Government of Indonesia (GOI) has reaffirmed its commitment to implement the B50 biodiesel mandate by mid-2026, despite recent plantation seizures that may impact production.
Oilseeds and Products Update
ID2025-0031 – Indonesia’s palm oil export estimate is revised down from the previous estimate to 22.8 MMT in 2024/25 due to the B40 mandate and reduced export demand. Soybean consumption is expected to remain flat at 2.8 MMT in 2024/25 amid weak consumer purchasing power. Lower prices encouraged imports of soybeans and soybean meal, but depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah and weak demand slowed this trend.
Grain and Feed Update
ID2025-0030 – For 2025/26, Indonesian paddy and corn production are forecast to return to normal trends following significant increases due to weather anomalies in 2024/25. The ample supply of corn in 2024/25 has driven feed mills to use more corn in feed formulations, reducing wheat for feed consumption and ending stocks. On trade, the trade deal between the United States and Indonesia announced on July 22, 2025 is expected to increase the market share of U.S. corn and wheat supplied to Indonesia in 2025/26.
Oilseeds and Products Update
Id2025-0007 – Indonesia’s palm oil export estimates for 2024/25 are lowered due to the rollout of the new B40 Biodiesel mandate which is expected to raise domestic industrial palm demand by 2 percent. The expansion of the government’s Free Nutritious Meals Program is projected to increase demand for soy-based foods as well as soy-based feed ingredients to fuel increased domestic production of animal protein for the program in 2024/25. Imports of soybean and soybean meal accelerated in the first two months of 2024/25 as prices softened.
Cotton and Products Update
ID2024-0050 – The Indonesian milling industry continuously faced significant challenges during 2023/24 which is estimated to continue posing some impact to 2024/25. Slowing demand from export destination countries and fierce competition from cheaper imported products in the domestic market have forced some textile and products manufacturers to take efficiency measures. Indonesian cotton imports and consumption in 2024/25 are forecast to decrease to 1.8 million bales and 1.75 million bales respectively. The declines are due to less demand from the export market and increased competition in the domestic market. Due to lower consumption, cotton ending stocks in 2024/25 are forecast to increase 10.6 percent from 2023/24.
Grain and Feed Update
ID2024-0045 – Indonesia’s 2024/25 wheat imports are forecast to decline 8 percent from 2023/24, when higher demand from feed mills, consumption of wheat flour-based food from major events in early 2024, and demand for cheaper alternatives to rice drove wheat imports up to new record highs. With larger production, rice imports in 2024/25 are expected to fall sharply from 2023/24, when the national logistics agency tendered to offset the smaller crop. Increased corn production in 2024/25 will reduce the volume of imports, although feed and wet milling demand remains strong.
Oilseeds and Products Update
ID2024-0048 – Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel blending mandate program, which is expected to roll out in 2025, is projected to increase palm oil use by 3 percent to 22 million metric tons in 2024/25. Soybean consumption recovered in 2023/24 as soybean retail prices continue to decrease. Weak performance in the feed mill industry reduced 2023/24 soybean meal use lower than previously expected. Due to lower prices, Indonesia’s imports of U.S. soybean meal rose an estimated 43 percent to 167,000 MT in 2023/24.
Oilseeds and Products Update
ID 2024 – 0022 – Indonesia palm oil exports are estimated to decline to 26.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2023/24 on lower output and weaker demand from key destination markets. Post revised down 2023/24 palm oil production to 45.6 MMT as 2023’s El Nino led to much lower yields than previously anticipated. Indonesia 2023/24 soybean production is also revised down to 360,000 metric tons on reduced government assistance for soybean production. Post revises 2023/24 soybean meal imports down to 5.65 MMT on weak demand from the poultry feed industry.