Coffee Annual
ID2025-0021- In 2025/26, Indonesia’s coffee production is expected to grow by 5 percent, reaching 11.3 million bags on improved yields from favorable weather and increased inputs. Exports are forecast to rise by 7 percent to 6.5 million bags, while domestic consumption is predicted to be 4.8 million bags due to weak consumer spending. The United States remains one of the largest importers of Indonesian coffee green beans.
Sugar Annual
ID2025-0019 – For marketing year 2025/26, Indonesian sugarcane and plantation white sugar productions are forecast to further increase to 35.0 million metric tons (MMT) and 2.6 million metric tons (MMT) respectively. This is due to harvested area expansion as well as the impact of La Nina, which is predicted to last until April 2025. Due to the expected higher production of domestic plantation white sugar, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) issued no import allocations for plantation white sugar for 2025/26 and slightly reduced the raw sugar import allocation for refineries. In line with population growth and growing demand from the food and beverage industry but hindered by an increased health focus, 2025/26 sugar consumption is forecast to reach to 7.7 MMT of raw sugar equivalent.
Food Processing Ingredients Annual
ID2025-0018 – Indonesia offers significant opportunities for U.S. food ingredient suppliers to supply raw materials for its 100-billion-dollar food processing industry. The United States is the third largest agricultural supplier to Indonesia, with a 10 percent market share. Soybeans and dairy products made up about 52 percent of all U.S. agricultural products shipped to Indonesia in 2024. Halal certification will become mandatory for many foods, ingredients, and additives and for all processed food products starting on October 17, 2026. Ingredients and food products with good sales potential include dairy products, fresh fruit, pork, tree nuts, powdered cheese, dried egg yolk, baking inputs, sugars and sweeteners, textured soy protein, cornstarch, natural honey, odoriferous substances, wine, almonds, juices/concentrates, cherries, peaches, raspberries, blackberries, blueberries, prepared luncheon meats, frozen meals, and frozen bakery items.
Cotton and Products Annual
ID2025-0017 – Following an estimated decrease of Indonesian cotton consumption in 2024/25 of 1.795 million bales, cotton consumption in 2025/26 is forecast to remain on par at 1.8 million bales. The decline is due to low global and domestic demand for Indonesian textiles and textile products, combined with tight competition with cheaper priced products in the local market, a weakening rupiah, and increased labor costs. The lack of a clear and consistent regulatory framework to support the textile industry in weathering the sustained downturn in textile demand will lead to further decline in cotton imports, which are forecast to decrease two percent to 1.8 million bales for 2025/26. The United States is the third largest supplier of cotton to Indonesia and the second largest importer of cotton fabrics from Indonesia.
Grain and Feed Annual
ID2025-0016 – Sustained rainfall due to a subsiding El Nino and a weak La Nina that is predicted to last until April 2025 will likely lead to increased rice and corn production in 2024/25. Food self-sufficiency policies prioritized by Indonesia’s new administration, combined with a weakening Indonesian rupiah, and higher production are expected to severely curtail imports of corn and rice in 2024/25. Although the new President’s flagship Free Nutritious Meals program is slated to be well funded, it is expected to have limited effect on food and feed demand during its first year of implementation as suppliers await more certainty and clarity on procurement regulations before making operational adjustments.
Food Service – Hotel Restaurant Institutional Annual
ID2024-0049 – In 2023, the Indonesian foodservice industry was valued at $26.3 billion, a 13 percent increase from the previous year, making it the largest foodservice market in Southeast Asia. Most of the leading foodservice players are American fast-food chains such as McDonald’s, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Starbucks. U.S. food export prospects in this market include cheese, frozen potatoes, beef, fruit, pork, wine, and tree nut products, mostly used by international hotel chains, high-end restaurants, and international fast-food chains.
Dairy and Products Annual
ID2024-0038 – The signature campaign promise of the newly sworn-in Prabowo administration, the Free Nutritious Meals Program, will be a large driver of increased demand over the next five years as the program aims to provide milk to over 82 million beneficiaries daily by 2029. Indonesian 2024 dairy demand is projected to rebound back to 2022 levels at 4.2 million metric tons and increase to 5.3 million metric tons in 2025 due to the additional drinking milk consumption increase to meet the Government of Indonesia’s 2025 target for the Free Nutritious Meals Program. The new administration will also be actively pushing for increased milk production through the importation of a target 1 million dairy cattle from various countries over the next five years.
Agricultural Biotechnology Annual
ID2024-0034 – Research and development of agricultural biotechnology in Indonesia continue to progress gradually. Over the past year, around 10 GE crop events have obtained food and feed approval, although only one has received environmental approval for domestic cultivation. To date, more than 50 crop events have received food and feed safety certificates. However, the development of animal biotechnology has not been prioritized. There is still no regulatory framework for GE animals and no GE animal products have been approved for commercialization. Since food security is a top priority of the new Prabowo Subianto administration, Indonesia’s national strategy supporting the increased development of GE products is expected to continue if not ramp up.
Biofuels Annual
ID2024 – 0018 – Indonesia’s fuel grade ethanol consumption remains small and localized in 2024, a year after the restart of the ethanol program. The formation of a taskforce for sugarcane expansion is meant to advance Indonesia’s self-sufficiency goals in sugar and bioethanol. Biodiesel production is projected to rise by 3 percent to 13 billion liters in 2024 on expected higher diesel use combined with the government-mandated 35-percent blending rate. Combined palm oil mill effluent (POME) and palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) exports remain high on continued demand from overseas markets, lower export levies relative to crude palm oil, and a lack of incentives for local refiners to use biodiesel feedstocks other than crude palm oil.
Retail Foods Annual
ID2024-0026 – Indonesia’s growing youth population, middle class, and urbanization offer promising opportunities for U.S. exporters. The retail sector had sales totaling $103 billion in 2023 with increased demand from convenience stores and traditional stores. Traditional markets still dominate the retail food and beverage sector, accounting for 76 percent of market share, although they continue to lose market share to modern retail stores and e-commerce. Among modern retail channels, convenience stores make up the largest segment and are expected to continue to grow in terms of the number of outlets due to their closer proximity to residential areas and expansion outside of Java Island.
