Retail Foods Annual
ID2025-0036 – Published on November 21, 2025 Indonesia’s grocery retail sector reached $101 billion in 2024, though it contracted slightly due to slowing consumer purchasing power and high operating costs. Traditional retailers, which still account for about 73 percent of the market, continued to decline, while supermarkets and hypermarkets also struggled amid store closures. Convenience […]
Biofuels Annual
ID2025-0029 – Indonesia’s aggressive biodiesel blending mandate rising from 35 percent to 40 percent in early 2025 has resulted in no exports due to limited production capacity. Expansion to B50 will require both significant subsidies and additional production capacity. The bioethanol market is projected for small growth in 2025, with E5 sales expected to remain limited in 2025 as the majority of the gasoline market is captured by subsidized fuel. In May and June 2025, the Government of Indonesia issued two conflicting regulations on biofuels, with one appearing to block biofuel imports while the other simplifies import processes. It remains unclear how these regulatory changes relate to the bilateral trade deal announced on July 22, 2025.
Exporter Guide Annual
ID2025-0027 – Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy with a population of 282 million, presents significant opportunities for U.S. exporters despite regulatory challenges, declining middle-class purchasing power, and tariff preferences granted to our major competitors. In 2024, the United States exported $3 billion of agricultural products to Indonesia with major products including soybeans, livestock feed ingredients, dairy products, wheat, cotton, beef, and fresh fruit. Tariff and non-tariff barriers remain, such as import licensing and facility registration requirements. In addition, halal certification requirements will apply to most agricultural products by October 2026. However, Indonesia’s tropical climate and rising demand for food products support continued growth in high-value agricultural imports. To succeed in this challenging but lucrative market, U.S. exporters should work closely with local importers, participate in major trade shows, and understand Indonesia’s relationship-focused business culture.
Coffee Annual
ID2025-0021- In 2025/26, Indonesia’s coffee production is expected to grow by 5 percent, reaching 11.3 million bags on improved yields from favorable weather and increased inputs. Exports are forecast to rise by 7 percent to 6.5 million bags, while domestic consumption is predicted to be 4.8 million bags due to weak consumer spending. The United States remains one of the largest importers of Indonesian coffee green beans.
Sugar Annual
ID2025-0019 – For marketing year 2025/26, Indonesian sugarcane and plantation white sugar productions are forecast to further increase to 35.0 million metric tons (MMT) and 2.6 million metric tons (MMT) respectively. This is due to harvested area expansion as well as the impact of La Nina, which is predicted to last until April 2025. Due to the expected higher production of domestic plantation white sugar, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) issued no import allocations for plantation white sugar for 2025/26 and slightly reduced the raw sugar import allocation for refineries. In line with population growth and growing demand from the food and beverage industry but hindered by an increased health focus, 2025/26 sugar consumption is forecast to reach to 7.7 MMT of raw sugar equivalent.
Food Processing Ingredients Annual
ID2025-0018 – Indonesia offers significant opportunities for U.S. food ingredient suppliers to supply raw materials for its 100-billion-dollar food processing industry. The United States is the third largest agricultural supplier to Indonesia, with a 10 percent market share. Soybeans and dairy products made up about 52 percent of all U.S. agricultural products shipped to Indonesia in 2024. Halal certification will become mandatory for many foods, ingredients, and additives and for all processed food products starting on October 17, 2026. Ingredients and food products with good sales potential include dairy products, fresh fruit, pork, tree nuts, powdered cheese, dried egg yolk, baking inputs, sugars and sweeteners, textured soy protein, cornstarch, natural honey, odoriferous substances, wine, almonds, juices/concentrates, cherries, peaches, raspberries, blackberries, blueberries, prepared luncheon meats, frozen meals, and frozen bakery items.
Cotton and Products Annual
ID2025-0017 – Following an estimated decrease of Indonesian cotton consumption in 2024/25 of 1.795 million bales, cotton consumption in 2025/26 is forecast to remain on par at 1.8 million bales. The decline is due to low global and domestic demand for Indonesian textiles and textile products, combined with tight competition with cheaper priced products in the local market, a weakening rupiah, and increased labor costs. The lack of a clear and consistent regulatory framework to support the textile industry in weathering the sustained downturn in textile demand will lead to further decline in cotton imports, which are forecast to decrease two percent to 1.8 million bales for 2025/26. The United States is the third largest supplier of cotton to Indonesia and the second largest importer of cotton fabrics from Indonesia.
Grain and Feed Annual
ID2025-0016 – Sustained rainfall due to a subsiding El Nino and a weak La Nina that is predicted to last until April 2025 will likely lead to increased rice and corn production in 2024/25. Food self-sufficiency policies prioritized by Indonesia’s new administration, combined with a weakening Indonesian rupiah, and higher production are expected to severely curtail imports of corn and rice in 2024/25. Although the new President’s flagship Free Nutritious Meals program is slated to be well funded, it is expected to have limited effect on food and feed demand during its first year of implementation as suppliers await more certainty and clarity on procurement regulations before making operational adjustments.
Food Service – Hotel Restaurant Institutional Annual
ID2024-0049 – In 2023, the Indonesian foodservice industry was valued at $26.3 billion, a 13 percent increase from the previous year, making it the largest foodservice market in Southeast Asia. Most of the leading foodservice players are American fast-food chains such as McDonald’s, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Starbucks. U.S. food export prospects in this market include cheese, frozen potatoes, beef, fruit, pork, wine, and tree nut products, mostly used by international hotel chains, high-end restaurants, and international fast-food chains.
Dairy and Products Annual
ID2024-0038 – The signature campaign promise of the newly sworn-in Prabowo administration, the Free Nutritious Meals Program, will be a large driver of increased demand over the next five years as the program aims to provide milk to over 82 million beneficiaries daily by 2029. Indonesian 2024 dairy demand is projected to rebound back to 2022 levels at 4.2 million metric tons and increase to 5.3 million metric tons in 2025 due to the additional drinking milk consumption increase to meet the Government of Indonesia’s 2025 target for the Free Nutritious Meals Program. The new administration will also be actively pushing for increased milk production through the importation of a target 1 million dairy cattle from various countries over the next five years.