Grain and Feed Update
ID2025-0046 – Despite predictions of another year with favorable weather, 2025/26 corn and rice production are forecast to decline. Consecutive plantings of paddy increase the risk of higher pest and disease incidence, which can lead to harvest failure. Combined with land conversion to non-agricultural uses, this will reduce paddy harvested area. Conversely, competition with other secondary crops providing higher income will reduce harvested areas of corn. Nonetheless, due to higher production of paddy and corn in 2024/25, the Government of Indonesia already announced it will only allow imports of specialty rice and will continue reducing corn import quota for industry in 2025/26, which is already forcing corn wet millers to shut down in late 2025. Imports of wheat in 2025/26 are forecast to increase to meet higher demand from growing feed and poultry industry and growing consumer demand for wheat-based foods, with an increased market share for U.S. wheat.
Grain and Feed Update
ID2025-0030 – For 2025/26, Indonesian paddy and corn production are forecast to return to normal trends following significant increases due to weather anomalies in 2024/25. The ample supply of corn in 2024/25 has driven feed mills to use more corn in feed formulations, reducing wheat for feed consumption and ending stocks. On trade, the trade deal between the United States and Indonesia announced on July 22, 2025 is expected to increase the market share of U.S. corn and wheat supplied to Indonesia in 2025/26.
Grain and Feed Annual
ID2025-0016 – Sustained rainfall due to a subsiding El Nino and a weak La Nina that is predicted to last until April 2025 will likely lead to increased rice and corn production in 2024/25. Food self-sufficiency policies prioritized by Indonesia’s new administration, combined with a weakening Indonesian rupiah, and higher production are expected to severely curtail imports of corn and rice in 2024/25. Although the new President’s flagship Free Nutritious Meals program is slated to be well funded, it is expected to have limited effect on food and feed demand during its first year of implementation as suppliers await more certainty and clarity on procurement regulations before making operational adjustments.
Grain and Feed Update
ID2024-0045 – Indonesia’s 2024/25 wheat imports are forecast to decline 8 percent from 2023/24, when higher demand from feed mills, consumption of wheat flour-based food from major events in early 2024, and demand for cheaper alternatives to rice drove wheat imports up to new record highs. With larger production, rice imports in 2024/25 are expected to fall sharply from 2023/24, when the national logistics agency tendered to offset the smaller crop. Increased corn production in 2024/25 will reduce the volume of imports, although feed and wet milling demand remains strong.
Grain and Feed Update
ID2024-0021 – Driven mainly by higher demand from feed mills, higher consumption of flour-based food during the consecutive religious festivities and general election, as well as demand for alternative staples cheaper than rice and trending flour-based foods, Indonesian wheat imports in 2023/24 are estimated to break record levels at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT). Meanwhile, 2023/24 corn consumption for feed is revised down 8.5 percent to 8.6 MMT. Assuming recovering local corn production and lower corn prices, 2024/25 wheat imports are forecast to slow to 12.0 MMT while corn for feed consumption will increase to 9.0 MMT.
Grain and Feed Annual
ID2024-0010
The Red Sea conflict is not expected to pose significant threats to Indonesian grain imports. Driven by demand from the recent general elections, as well as high local corn prices, imports of wheat for food and feed consumption are estimated to increase for 2023/24. Post-election demand for wheat and rice are forecast to be corrected in 2024/25.
El Nino Conditions Compel Indonesia to Import Additional 2 MMT of Rice
ID2023-0020
On September 26, 2023, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) announced it will authorize the importation of an additional 2 million metric tons (MMT) of rice to offset rice production shortfalls and bring down rice prices. BULOG, a state-owned logistics company, reported its 2022/23 ending stocks risk falling below food security levels. BULOG has been periodically releasing its government rice reserves stocks to dampen skyrocketing rice prices due to El Nino-induced rice production shortages, but now needs to replenish those stocks with imports. Approximately 1 MMT of this new import allocation must arrive before the end of 2023 to keep BULOG’s stocks from being fully depleted, while the remaining 1 MMT are expected to arrive in early 2024.
Government of Indonesia Orders the Importation of 2 MMT of Rice to Replenish Emergency Stocks
ID2023-0007
This report modifies the rice consumption, trade, and stocks analysis of the 2023 Grain and Feed Annual for Indonesia in light of new official information. The Government of Indonesia recently announced it would import 2 million metric tons (MMT) of rice by December 2023 in order to fulfil its ongoing distribution program and replenish its emergency stocks in case of natural disasters and other needs. Post revises up 2022/23 rice imports to 1.75 MMT and 2023/24 forecasted rice imports to 800,000 MT.
Grain and Feed Annual
ID2023-0006
High commodity prices in the international market during the last term of 2022 are expected to impede the growth of 2022/23 Indonesian wheat imports and curb the use of wheat in feed formulation. The removal of most COVID-19 restrictions is expected to lead to improved consumer spending. Therefore, consumption of wheat and corn for Food, Seed and Industrial in 2022/23 and 2023/24 are forecast to increase. Forecasts of an early and longer dry season in 2023 will provide for better corn production while posing threats to paddy production which requires more water than corn.