ID2026-0010 – Published on April 1, 2026
The anticipated early onset of the 2026 dry season, combined with the potential for a moderate El Niño that could bring hotter, drier weather through late 2026 and early 2027, is expected to increase corn harvested area in 2025/26 and 2026/27 since some farmers are likely to switch from growing paddy to corn, which requires less water. Consequently, paddy harvested area in 2025/26 and 2026/27 is forecast to decline, since most corn and paddy are grown in the same fields. Nonetheless, due to higher paddy and corn production in 2024/25, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) did not allow imports of medium-quality rice for consumption or rice for industry. The GOI also reduced the corn import quota for industry in 2025/26, which led corn wet millers to temporarily shut down in late 2025. In contrast, wheat imports in 2026/27 are forecast to increase to meet higher demand from the growing feed and poultry sectors and rising consumer demand for wheat-based foods, with an expected increased market share for U.S. wheat.