Indonesia’s Expanding Halal Standards with Trade Impacts on the Horizon
ID2025-0035 – Published on August 27, 2025 On October 17, 2026, mandatory halal certification requirements are scheduled to expand to most food and beverage products. In addition, genetically engineered products would also need to be certified halal by this date, although Indonesian officials have informally signaled flexibility. (Note that meat and dairy products must already […]
Biofuels Annual
ID2025-0029 – Indonesia’s aggressive biodiesel blending mandate rising from 35 percent to 40 percent in early 2025 has resulted in no exports due to limited production capacity. Expansion to B50 will require both significant subsidies and additional production capacity. The bioethanol market is projected for small growth in 2025, with E5 sales expected to remain limited in 2025 as the majority of the gasoline market is captured by subsidized fuel. In May and June 2025, the Government of Indonesia issued two conflicting regulations on biofuels, with one appearing to block biofuel imports while the other simplifies import processes. It remains unclear how these regulatory changes relate to the bilateral trade deal announced on July 22, 2025.
Oilseeds and Products Update
ID2025-0031 – Indonesia’s palm oil export estimate is revised down from the previous estimate to 22.8 MMT in 2024/25 due to the B40 mandate and reduced export demand. Soybean consumption is expected to remain flat at 2.8 MMT in 2024/25 amid weak consumer purchasing power. Lower prices encouraged imports of soybeans and soybean meal, but depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah and weak demand slowed this trend.
Grain and Feed Update
ID2025-0030 – For 2025/26, Indonesian paddy and corn production are forecast to return to normal trends following significant increases due to weather anomalies in 2024/25. The ample supply of corn in 2024/25 has driven feed mills to use more corn in feed formulations, reducing wheat for feed consumption and ending stocks. On trade, the trade deal between the United States and Indonesia announced on July 22, 2025 is expected to increase the market share of U.S. corn and wheat supplied to Indonesia in 2025/26.
Drivers and Trends of US Agricultural Trade with Indonesia Opportunities and Challenges
ID2025-0028 – Following a lengthy period with a trade surplus, the U.S. trade balance with Indonesia in agricultural products began to reverse in 2021. Largely driven by increased palm oil exports, the highest trade deficit was recorded in 2022 at $1.8 billion. If the product scope is expanded to agricultural related products, including seafood and wood products, the deficit is even higher, valued at $3.7 billion in 2024. Overall, several factors substantially contributed to the U.S. agriculture trade deficit. These include increased competition (e.g., via tariff preferences and lower prices), non-tariff barriers (e.g., import licensing), and high U.S. demand for select Indonesian products. However, significant opportunities remain in this promising, albeit challenging, market, especially if the tariff and non-tariff barriers can be addressed.
Exporter Guide Annual
ID2025-0027 – Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy with a population of 282 million, presents significant opportunities for U.S. exporters despite regulatory challenges, declining middle-class purchasing power, and tariff preferences granted to our major competitors. In 2024, the United States exported $3 billion of agricultural products to Indonesia with major products including soybeans, livestock feed ingredients, dairy products, wheat, cotton, beef, and fresh fruit. Tariff and non-tariff barriers remain, such as import licensing and facility registration requirements. In addition, halal certification requirements will apply to most agricultural products by October 2026. However, Indonesia’s tropical climate and rising demand for food products support continued growth in high-value agricultural imports. To succeed in this challenging but lucrative market, U.S. exporters should work closely with local importers, participate in major trade shows, and understand Indonesia’s relationship-focused business culture.
First US Agricultural Trade Delegation to Timor-Leste Discovers Small but Lucrative Hidden Gem Market
ID2025-0026 – On May 8-9, 2025, FAS Jakarta and U.S. Embassy Dili led the first agricultural trade delegation of U.S. industry groups in Timor-Leste. The delegation met with senior government officials, importers, and private industry to explore opportunities for U.S. commodities. After fruitful B2B discussions, the industry group representatives anticipate a combined export potential of $22.7 million annually in the short term, with U.S. poultry exports projected to reach a record $20 million in 2025. Even higher projections are anticipated once Timor-Leste ascends to ASEAN later this year as it gains more favorable market access to ASEAN’s 10 other member states. Timor-Leste is considering launching food processing and agribusinesses in the area designated for an industrial park near its new deepwater port, which could also provide opportunities for U.S. ingredient exports. In 2024, the United States accounted for around 4 percent of Timor-Leste’s $300 million imports of agricultural and related products.
Indonesia Agricultural Biotechnology Showcase Piques Interest of Indonesian Government Officials
ID2025-0024 – On May 22, 2025, FAS Jakarta organized the Indonesia Agricultural Biotechnology Showcase highlighting to Government of Indonesia (GOI) officials, university students, and other stakeholders Indonesia’s advances in the field of agricultural biotechnology. Indonesia is one of 32 countries in the world cultivating genetically engineered (GE) crops; however, new innovative products face a costly and interrupted approval processes that, if streamlined and made more efficient, can help Indonesia increase its biotechnology research, development, and production potential. Moreover, U.S. soybean and other GE product exports to Indonesia, valued at $1.75 billion in 2024, risk facing increased regulatory burdens without overall GOI support for biotechnology.
Indonesia Raises Palm Exports Levy
ID2025-0022 – On May 14, 2025, Indonesia raised export levies for most palm oil products, from 7.5 percent to 10 percent for crude products and up to 9.5 percent for refined products. The levy increases are meant to sustain the new B40 blend mandate program.
Coffee Annual
ID2025-0021- In 2025/26, Indonesia’s coffee production is expected to grow by 5 percent, reaching 11.3 million bags on improved yields from favorable weather and increased inputs. Exports are forecast to rise by 7 percent to 6.5 million bags, while domestic consumption is predicted to be 4.8 million bags due to weak consumer spending. The United States remains one of the largest importers of Indonesian coffee green beans.